TMF Group's top five predictions for 2014
Opinion 2 minute read

TMF Group's top five predictions for 2014

08 January 2014

As we all try to neatly file away 2013 ready for a new beginning, we decided to see our way past the January stupor and take a look at what lies ahead.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are forecasting steady global economic growth at 3.6% - the general picture is good but what about the nitty gritty?

We’ve pulled together our top five predictions for this year based on the insights of our local experts.

1. Jochum Haakma, Global Executive Director Business Development: As China transforms from the world’s factory into a more knowledge-based and service oriented economy, with a fast developing and more critical consumer base, FDI into China will remain hugely important. On the flip-side, by 2020 China will have invested an extra US$2trillion abroad - at least US$500 billion of this will have landed in Europe.

2. Jochum Haakma: Indonesia’s appetite for “inbound” FDI is increasing, particularly as it is one of Asia’s growth leaders. But the complexity of its rules and regulations will be a consideration of investors and those looking for mergers and acquisitions. Compliance requirements will be significant and key to the success of FDI.

3. Alex Medlock, Managing Director Russia: The first ever domestic securitisation of consumer loans in Russia will allow domestic securitisation of non-mortgage-related assets – including SME loans, trade receivables, lease payments etc. Home Credit Bank’s structure has huge potential since it allows the creation of a long-term funding programme for a variety of bank assets that can attract Russian and international investors.

4. Segundino La-Fuente, Managing Director Brazil: Brazil is keen to live up to its emerging economy status by making processes much easier for businesses, which is good news for those firms looking to take advantage of the World Cup next year and the 2016 Olympics. The government will certainly be looking at decreasing the time it takes to open a simple entity in Brazil - in Sao Paulo it currently takes 90 days. Its complex tax system is also under fire after recent legislation added to the bureaucratic burden, so this could be up for review too.

5. Roberto Scrimieri, Managing Director Argentina: In our global complexity report Argentina ranked as the country with the most complicated regulatory regime. However, with government elections taking place later this year policy change is in the air. This could be a turning point for the country, which is looking for ways to attract international investors and companies - particularly given the recent success of Mexico in attracting investment due to the relative ease of doing business there.

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